9:18 PM
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Latest forecast on Hurricane Hilary from Mark Sponsler (Stormsurf):
Hurricane Hilary 'Needle Threading' Update - At 11AM Fri (8/18) Hilary continued north-northwest at 15 kts with winds 115 kts (132 mph) producing seas to 49 ft (estimated). All meaningful fetch and seas were now moving into the SCal swell window and were east of the center see purple curved line). The swell window is narrow pushing into Southern California, at only 38 nmiles wide (red line) on the 160 degree track into San Diego (orange line) and 83 nmiles up into Long Beach/Malibu (green line) at its widest. That means there's a little more fetch east of the eye pushing up to Long Beach versus further south. The storm is peaking and is to hold strength thru 11 pm this evening, then fading some on Sat (8/19) while moving north-northwest with the swell window closed shortly thereafter (see black lines). Landfall point has shifted north a little to about 10 miles north of Ensenada at minimal hurricane strength at 65 kts (75 moh) and then over west San Diego at about 6 pm Sunday (8/20). Expect copius rainfall over Southern California.
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