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Tropical Storm Norma

After a quiet last couple weeks, the East Pacific tropics have stirred in the last 24 hours. We have three features that we're watching this afternoon: Tropical Depression 15, well to the southwest of Cabo; Tropical Storm Max, moving onshore near Acapulco; and Tropical Storm Norma, which is a couple hundred miles south of Cabo.

TD 15 and Tropical Storm Max do not look like swell makers (outside of some very localized swell and weather around Acapulco), with better swell potential from Norma for southern Baja and northern Mexico in the next few days. There is even some SoCal swell potential in the long term.

For the time being will base the swell forecast on the official track of Norma from the National Hurricane Center, which takes Norma on a slow northerly track over the next couple days while strengthening. Landfall in Southern Baja is possible late this weekend or early next week. Under this scenario, strong southerly swell will build over the weekend (with moderate SE swell on Friday). There is potential for heavy wind and rain later in the weekend through early next week.

Southern California swell potential looks minimal based on the current forecast track from the National Hurricane center, as Norma would never enter our swell window. However, as was aforementioned, there is considerable uncertainty on Norma's track beyond 48 hours and at least one of our more trusted models does indicate that Norma could move into our swell window early next week. So we're not ready to totally write off Norma just yet.

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